Friday, 29 May 2009

The future's bright

There is an interesting post about turnout from Mike Smithson this morning. He makes the point that if turnout is low on Thursday then it is the older demographic that is more likely to vote. This will make the result skew in favour of the Tories and anti-european parties if his conjecture is correct. What I found equally intriguing about his post was the voting figures for the under 34s (oh, the joy of being in the youngest demographic.....) The chart is below- hope you don't mind me pinching it, Mike:



18-34s split: 32-26-22-7-6-2 Tory-Lab-Lib Dem-Green-UKIP-BNP. What is particularly warming about this data is the small levels of support for UKIP and the BNP. Like the youngest demographics in the US it would seem that the youngest generations are more liberal than their older peers. They are also less inclined to be extremely anti-european. This is hardly surprising- the experience of Europe is greater for younger generations; they are less inclined to see it as some foreign power sent to crush mighty Albion. Strangely, they seem more inclined to vote Conservative as well. Answers on a postcard to that one.

It is encouraging to look at these data. We just have to hope that as they get homes and cars they don't suddenly become dull Thatcherite materialistic little Englanders. All we have to do is get them to actually vote now!

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