Friday, 8 August 2008

The Obama-McCain battleground

Remember them: Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire. They are the 'pure toss-up' states. According to MSNBC's Chuck Todd, Obama just needs one of Virginia, Ohio and Indiana to win as things stand.

It is also worth bearing in mind that while the national polls vacillate between a very narrow lead of a point for McCain and five to six points for Obama, state by state the polls are showing more stability. That's why The Real Clear Politics election counter (which allocates all states and you can see at the top left of this blog) has been steady for a few weeks now. Good news for Obama is the avalanche of new voter registrations in Ohio and Virginia.

How does this play into Obama's VP choice? Well, Virginia is a pure toss-up state and Tim Kaine, its Governor, should he be VP nominee could tip it for Obama. Then there's Indiana, which should be a slam-dunk for McCain, but is only leaning in his direction. Could Evan Bayh be the man to tip it in the opposite direction? In other words, the electoral map gives us no clue as to which way Senator Obama may go. Sorry.

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