Wednesday, 20 August 2008

McCain ahead for the first time

The Real Clear Politics electoral vote projection (top left) is showing a 274-264 lead for McCain. With a couple of exceptions, the electoral map now bears a striking similarity to Kerry/Edwards result in 2004 (and Gore/Lieberman in 2000.) For all the talk of a fifty state strategy, a 270 electoral vote strategy is the bottom line.

There are strong rumours swirling around that Obama will announce his running mate today. I have signed up for the mobile alert so I'll definitely be the first to know along with millions of others and the entire media and blogosphere. I'll post it when I have it unless loads of other people have posted it already in which case what's the point?

The state by state narrowing of the polls must be of grave concern. One state where McCain has flipped into a lead is Ohio. Which of the potential running mates could bring more of the middle class white vote to Obama in states like Ohio?

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