Saturday, 3 May 2008

Some of the mist clears?

There's quite a bit of 'down and out' analysis this morning and there will be more of it over the weekend I'm sure. Martin Kettle and Matthew Parris both come to an apocalyptic conclusion.

John Curtice
in The Independent offers a more sanguine view. It's not over yet but boy does Labour have a job of work to do. My only quibble with his analysis is that he takes the economy as perhaps the overriding and predominant factor in voting motivation to the exclusion of almost everything else. There are broader factors at play here that Labour has to address.

One final analysis on the optimistic side by Hopi Sen is worth a read. Valiant and swash-buckling, Custer had nothing on Hopi. Cheered me up immensely. On one point in particular, I absolutely agree with Hopi- organisation is critical. In Rugby we were hit by the same factors as elsewhere (and yes the 10p tax abolition was an issue with white, working class voters in particular and, yes, many of them did vote Tory) but we didn't lose a seat as a result of some pretty keen targeting. That sort of targeting won't enable us to win back the Council but it keeps the Labour Group in tact and ready for better times. It was the equivalent of a defensive 0-0 away in the Champions League. But that is what was needed.

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