Monday, 28 April 2008

Poll Wars

Well, Yougov are reporting a 10% Boris Johnson lead while MRUK and MORI are reporting a narrow Ken Livingstone lead. At least one of the pollsters is completely wrong. It does seem worryingly suspicious that MRUK and MORI seem to have the proportion of certain voters at around the 60% mark when the last two Mayoral elections have seen them hovering in the mid-30s. But as Anthony Wells hints in an excellent analysis, sometimes pollsters can get the right result but for the wrong reasons. Science can be the enemy of accuracy in the polling business.

Let's wait to see what Thursday's result is, but, to be honest, who wins the vote is far more interesting than which pollster gets it right though it does provide an amusing sideshow. No-one has any idea who is going to win. Friday will be an interesting day indeed.

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