Friday, 4 April 2008

Barack Obama re-establishes lead. A matter of time?

It is clear that Barack Obama has found firm ground again following the Jeremiah Wright hiccough . Most polls are showing him back in a solid lead. The Real Clear Politics poll average shows him back ahead of McCain also.

So what is Hillary up to? Some have suggested that she has a financial issue and that is why she is staying on. You can understand why she is concerned at the prospect of quitting the campaign with an $8million debt with $5million of her own money in the race as well. But no, that doesn't really explain it. She still believes that Obama will stumble. And she wants to be around to save her party when he does.

My guess is that he's been through the worst of it. The Jeremiah Wright stuff has blown over. It will come back from time to time but he won't be fatally wounded. The Rezko link is unfortunate but that sort of thing tends to frustrate the voters as it's like trying to clench yoghurt. An excellent summary of the current state of play is in this week's New York Review of Books. It includes a quote from James Warren, Managing Editor of the Chicago Tribune, about Obama. For him, the 'vetting' has happened.

Though he's unlikely to win it, he's closing the gap in Pennsylvania, and he just has to keep to his current course. Nancy Pelosi who will chair the convention has said that the candidate with the most pledged delegates should win. Expect Howard Dean, Al Gore, John Edwards and Jimmy Carter to start to suggest the same thing.

Obama is good to go.

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