Sunday, 9 March 2008

Barack Obama doesn't win in primary states? UPDATE

Doing the actual calculations on whether Obama is weaker than Hillary Clinton in states that were Democratic in the previous Presidential election made me suspicious. That allegation doesn't stack up so what of the other claim that his support is just down to caucus states and not primaries? Well, it turns out that while his relative performance is better in caucuses than in primaries, his absolute performance is better that Hillary Clinton's in both types of selection.

So, putting this data together with the data from yesterday:

- Senator Obama is ahead by 1066 pledged delegates to 1055.5 in states that have held primaries. He is ahead by 307 to 171 in states that have held caucuses.
- He leads by 15 to 12 in states that have held primaries with a further victory expected in Mississippi on Tuesday.
- Senator Obama is ahead by 11 states to 5 in states that voted for Democratic Presidential candidate, John Kerry, in 2004.
- He is also ahead by 49 pledged delegates in the same states (737-688).

A pretty healthy picture wouldn't you say from Senator Obama's perspective? Not only is the Clinton campaign's attempts to count only certain states where they did well divisive and dismissive, it turns out to be completely wrong as well.

The data sources that I used are here:


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