Wednesday, 20 February 2008

Houston, we have a problem

You should never write off the Clintons. Or so the modern day cliché goes. But equally let's not underestimate the significance of what has happened in the last three major primaries. In Virginia, Maryland, and now Wisconsin, Obama has devastated Clinton's coalition. As things stand, it would appear that only a lead amongst older, white women and Latinos remains (this latter demographic has not really been tested since Super Tuesday.)

As I intimated yesterday
, Wisconsin should have been a slam-dunk for Hillary- white, industrial/agricultural, primary. She hasn't just lost it, she has lost it by seventeen points. Just two weeks ago, the polls were pointing to a Hillary win here. But again the Obama momentum and ground organisation were unstoppable. Even worse for her, the only state where Obama has been able to focus for a week or so on exclusive campaigning that he has lost is Nevada. And he won in overall delegates there.

Hawaii has gone Obama's way as well- I think that's ten in a row but you lose count after a while. After the row about Obama plagiarising the speeches of the Governor of Massachusetts, Deval Patrick, one wit remarked last night that maybe Hillary should plagiarise Obama's coalition. He hasn't plagiarised hers. He's demolished it.

Write the Clintons off? Not yet. But Houston, boy do they have a problem.

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