Thursday, 14 February 2008

Arlington, Virginia

A new poll out today shows Senator Clinton over 20 points ahead in Ohio (previous polls can be viewed here.) For all the enthusiasm in and around the Obama campaign, there is still a long way to go. No amount of ground organisation will overcome a poll lead that large.

The assumption seems to be that Clinton will win Texas too. Most people see it as an even safer Clinton bet than Ohio. Speaking to a couple of people in Texas yesterday, I'm not so sure it's a banker to that extent though Clinton is the clear favourite. There are significant differences between Texas and Nevada or California which I'll be exploring over the next couple of weeks. There are no polls out that I've seen yet but there will be some out in the next few days I'm sure. Texas also has a strange hybrid of Caucus and Primary that will dampen any delegate bonus for the winner. More on that later.

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