Saturday, 9 February 2008

Arlington, Virginia

My first 'E8voice' blog post is from Arlington, Virginia. I am here to see the primary campaign first hand. Three initial observations.

1) Obama is now the 'front-runner.' It is clear in the way he's being talked about. This could benefit Hillary. She described Obama as the 'establishment' candidate and it is clearly the strategy that's evolving in the Hillary camp. The reality is that is couldn't be closer but Obama will become the assumed candidate after the next few days and that will make things a little more tricky for him.

2) The cash shortage is hitting the Clinton campaign. Obama and McCain have TV ads in plentiful supply here in Virginia. Clinton ads are nowhere to be seen. This will aid her transition, incredible as it seems, to outsider candidate status. Again, she may benefit from this in Texas and then in Pennsylvania. She may be saving any spare cash for those primaries.

3) The Democrats could be heading for disaster at Denver. If Hillary's outsider strategy fails, Obama will head to Denver with more States, more delegates, and more votes. The super-delegates will then be in a position where they would have to back Obama. If they didn't, then the Republicans would have Hillary for toast given that the Democrats have not stopped going on about the 2000 election where Bush won with fewer votes than Gore. If they fall in behind Obama, then will Hillary go to court to get the Michigan and Florida delegates which she won re-instated?

All fascinating.

2 comments:

  1. Anthony
    Congrats on your new blog
    At the risk of being the pee on your flame however - arent you at risk of looking as ridiculous as Iain Dale on his blog? He is breathlessly posting away from America on things that we can all see over here anyway - thats the point of the internet!
    I watch CBS news and the US version of CNN online and am a subscriber to the Obama campaign for example
    Anyway on matters far more serious than global geo-politics; we shall have to go for a beer soon

    All the best

    Chris Underwood

    ReplyDelete
  2. It's an absolutely fair point. Don't worry, I haven't become an egomaniac. This is just a few thoughts and reflections which has only been linked to my Facebook friends. We'll see how it goes- if I enjoy doing it I'll keep it going.

    Actually, I think Iain Dale's blog is good. Not to everyone's taste but it's lively. It's interesting- in the US the left has been more embracing of blogging, in the UK it has been the right who have produced the best quality on-line content in my opinion. There are a couple of exceptions but I wonder why? The best (almost) blog in my view, I hate to say, is conservativehome.

    I will do a post on the best of the US blogosphere at some point. Officiandos will know them already but others may have an interest.

    ReplyDelete